He’s running.
Gov. Josh Shapiro officially announced his widely expected reelection bid for Pennsylvania governor Thursday, as speculation over a 2028 run for president continues to build. The question now: How will the Democrat’s rumored presidential ambitions bolster or detract from his must-win election at home in 2026?
Shapiro will kick off his reelection campaign with not one but two rallies — first stopping in Pittsburgh, then in Philadelphia. In a campaign video posted to social media Thursday morning, he touted his three years of leading a divided legislature and his bipartisan achievements in a politically split state, via a campaign that has already amassed a record $30 million war chest.
He coasted to victory in 2022, elevating his profile within the national Democratic Party, and is not expected to face a primary challenger. In the general election, he will likely face Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who largely consolidated GOP support early.
But that’s not the only race on the line in November.
Shapiro, whose campaign declined to comment for this article, has been elusive when asked directly about plans to run for president. But in the last year, he’s taken bold steps to build a national profile, while quietly making moves behind the scenes that signal bigger political aspirations. He’s expanded his public affairs team, planned a book tour for the end of January, and sat for interviews with national magazines like the Atlantic, which published an extensive feature on him late last year. Last month, he and Democratic presidential candidate kingmaker U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D., S.C.) discussed the pioneering Black lawmakers’s new book on a stage in Philadelphia. Earlier in December, he and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, a Republican, discussed curbing political violence with NBC News host Savannah Guthrie, a conversation that highlighted Shapiro’s emphasis on bipartisanship.
At home, he’s a local political celebrity, boasting approval ratings between 52% and 60%. But outside the Keystone State, he has yet to become a household name.
As Shapiro looks to potential parallel runs, he’ll need to continue to build a national profile without outwardly focusing too much on the presidential picture.
“The challenge, of course, is you have to take care of your next election first,” said Christopher Borick, a pollster at Muhlenberg College. “Of anything he does, he knows this is the most important thing for his potential success in 2028 if he was to run.”
The former Pennsylvania attorney general, Montgomery County commissioner, and state representative has never in 20 years suffered an electoral defeat. Being passed over for Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in 2024 kept that winning streak alive.
In the governor’s race, Shapiro will likely face a more formidable opponent in Garrity than he did in state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R., Franklin) in 2022, but he’ll also be running in a far more favorable political atmosphere for Democrats amid souring attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the GOP. If he can retain the governor’s mansion decisively and bring a ticket of Democrats vying for the statehouse and Congress to victory with him, that’s a narrative that could be strong in a Democratic presidential primary.
“Having a win, and maybe an impressive one in Pennsylvania, the key swing state heading into that cycle, is about as big of a boost as any that you can have,” Borick added.
Running local
The 2028-curious Democrats include several other sitting governors generating buzz: California’s Gavin Newsom, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, Maryland’s Wes Moore, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois’ JB Pritzker. Shapiro has formed alliances with several of them.
But unlike some of his peers, Shapiro hasn’t been a frequent guest on cable news or podcasts with national reach.
That’s not to say he hasn’t made moves toward a potential presidential run.
On Oct. 4, 2024, nearly a month before Harris lost the presidential election to Trump, Shapiro confidentially requested that the state ethics commission determine whether he would violate any state ethics laws for accepting royalties from a book about his life in public service, according to the filing.
His book, Where We Keep the Light, will publish later this month, recounting his political upbringing, his vice presidential vetting, and the firebombing of his home last year. He’s not alone. Harris published a memoir about the 2024 election last year, and Newsom is due out with Young Man in a Hurry: A Memoir of Discovery in February.
But in the coming months, several Democratic strategists predict Shapiro will be squarely focused on the governor’s race he has to win in Pennsylvania — simultaneously proving he has what it takes to capture the vote of the nation’s most important swing state.
“He’s such a careful politician. He’s not taking anything for granted,” said former Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat who also once faced scrutiny for having potential presidential ambitions.
Shapiro is likely to follow the same campaign playbook in Pennsylvania as he did in 2022: Stump in every region of the state, including areas where Democrats don’t usually show up. That helped him run down the margins in longtime GOP strongholds like Lancaster or Schuylkill Counties toward his resounding victory over Mastriano. Those stops in most of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties won’t give him as much time to visit South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire, as the other Democratic presidential hopefuls start their sojourns.
“The No. 1 caveat is stay focused on the race you’re running,” echoed Alan Kessler, a national fundraiser based in Philadelphia who has supported and fundraised for Shapiro.
Still, the campaign is likely to generate attention beyond the Keystone State.
Shapiro will still court donors in blue states as he fundraises for reelection, Kessler added.
Come November, he will be the only governor with rumored 2028 aspirations up for reelection in a swing state. And his brand as a popular, moderate Democratic governor trying to restore trust in government — as well as his potential to help boost Democrats down ballot — will easily capture a wider audience and bring national media into Pennsylvania.
As Democrats seek to flip control of the U.S. House in 2026, targeting several congressional districts in the state, the election may once again come down to Pennsylvania, and in turn, increase the spotlight on Shapiro. The governor is widely seen as someone who can boost the congressional Democratic candidates also on the ballot, having won three of the four districts that Democrats are targeting in the state by double digits in 2022.
“Every single Democrat that I know that’s running for office in 2026 in Pennsylvania wants the governor to campaign with them,” Democratic state party chair Eugene DePasquale said.
Preparing for an onslaught
Republicans have targeted several weaknesses to try to erode Shapiro’s popularity in Pennsylvania and boost Garrity. They point to a lack of rigorous electoral challengers in his past. They question his record of “getting stuff done” — his oft-repeated motto — including three late state budgets. And they’ve harped on a lack of transparency as governor, including claims he used tax dollars for political benefit as well as a sexual harassment scandal involving a former top aide. They’ve also criticized his support for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who recently dropped his third gubernatorial bid following a fraud scandal among the state’s Somali refugee population totaling $1 billion, according to federal prosecutors.
Among the emerging attacks: Republicans want to highlight Shapiro’s presumed presidential ambitions, as they try to cast him as an opportunist more interested in a future White House bid than the problems of everyday Pennsylvanians.
“Josh Shapiro is more concerned with a promotion to Pennsylvania Avenue than serving hardworking Pennsylvanians,” Garrity said in a statement, noting the state fared poorly in U.S. News and World Report rankings on the economy and education. “In the military, I learned the importance of putting service before self. Pennsylvanians are the hardest-working, most compassionate, strongest people in the nation, and together we will return Pennsylvania to our rightful place as a national and global leader.”
There are lingering missteps that could come up in a reelection campaign or afterward. He was unable to secure a long-term funding stream for mass transit, requiring him to use capital funds to keep SEPTA operating. He has yet to follow through on his support for school vouchers, a GOP-selling point for him that angered the powerful teachers’ unions in the state. And he’s faced questions over a number of actions his administration has taken, including $1.3 million in security improvements to his personal home following the attack on the governor’s residence in Harrisburg, his use of the state plane, and his transparency in open records requests, among others.
Mastriano, the far-right Republican state senator who announced Wednesday he won’t run for governor, said in a statement earlier this week that Shapiro “owes [Pennsylvanians] straight answers” over his use of the state plane, security updates to his personal home in Abington Township, and more.
“Pennsylvanians deserve accountability, not ambition,” he added, making a nod to Shapiro’s potential longer-term plans.
Borick, the pollster, was skeptical that attacks on Shapiro’s potential wider ambitions could reverse his largely positive public sentiment.
“If that’s all they got, they don’t got a lot.”
Republicans insist they see a path to victory for Garrity in a politically divided state with months to go until the election. But behind the scenes, some Republicans are already acknowledging the goal is to lose by less and prevent big losses in state legislature or congressional races.
If Shapiro does look poised to cruise to victory, it might mean less media attention on the race, and it could mean he’s less vetted ahead of a much bigger stage.
“I think Josh is better served if the [Republican Governors Association] puts $100 million into this race because then it’s nationalized,” said a Democratic political strategist based in Pennsylvania who did not want to be named speculating on Shapiro’s presidential run. “If it’s a cakewalk, CNN’s not gonna cover it …If he wants to be governor for another four years, he should pray for a cakewalk. If he wants to be president, he should pray for a difficult campaign.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example, the strategist noted, cleaned up in his 2022 reelection, but failed to gain traction in the GOP presidential primary that Trump dominated.
Beyond 2026
Shapiro speaks Pennsylvanian very well. Raised in Montgomery County, he’s lived here almost all of his life, and has built an image as a popular moderate focused on problem-solving in a purple state. That’s earned him the support of about 30% of Trump voters in the state.
But winning a general election in Pennsylvania is different than winning a Democratic presidential primary.
He’s tried not to alienate the MAGA base, focusing on issues with bipartisan appeal like funding for apprenticeship and vocational-training programs. He’s taken on Trump in court, but has picked his personal battles with the president more carefully.
But being a strategic, self-described “progressive pragmatist” can end up alienating voters on both sides.
Becky Carroll, a Democratic political consultant in Chicago who has worked with Pritzker, said Shapiro seems less on the radar of voters in the Midwest. As she’s followed Shapiro’s career, she said she sees a “damn fine governor,” but someone who’s taken a more muted approach to Trump than blue state governors like Pritzker and Newsom.
When it comes to a Democratic primary, candidates may be judged in part on their pushback to Trump, she said. “I think we’re in a moment where you can sulk in a corner and hope it’ll all go away or fight …,” Carroll said. “And if you’re gonna put yourself out there for a primary battle, you better show you have battle scars to prove you can fight for the most vulnerable in the country right now.”
But other national strategists see Shapiro’s moderate appeal as a potential asset in 2028. Jared Goldberg-Leopold, a former communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, thinks Shapiro’s biggest asset is his electoral track record in a state the nation knows is critical on the path to the White House. Primaries have previously been won by moderates whom the party thinks have the best chance at winning the general.
But the first step, Goldberg-Leopold stressed, is the governor’s race ahead.
“It would be easy for the Eagles to look past the 49ers to the next week of playoffs, but they’ve gotta focus on only one thing. And the same is true for the governor,” he said. “You can only prepare for what’s ahead of you, and the way people get in trouble in politics is planning too many steps ahead.”
Staff writer Katie Bernard contributed to this article.
