The storms took down trees and wires, flooded roads, spoiled a World Cup party, and set off a deluge of smartphone panic alerts. But they evidently didn’t come close to erasing the rain deficits throughout the Philly region.
Even with the additional light rains on Tuesday, bringing the two-day total to about 1.45 inches, officially Philadelphia’s rainfall for June still is slightly below normal, and this is after an extraordinary streak of 10 consecutive months of below-normal precipitation.
And Monday’s storms exhibited a classic summer caprice. Areas of New Jersey and Chester County, both under state-declared drought emergencies, were all but stiffed, according to an analysis by the National Weather Service’s Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. Northwestern Philadelphia and southeastern Montgomery County got as much as 2 inches.
The weather service’s Mount Holly office reported that totals within counties varied radically. In Bucks County, for example, 1.8 inches was measured in Bristol and just over a half inch in Doylestown. Across the river, 2.4 inches fell upon Sewell, and about 0.75 in Monroe Township.
“Some areas got it, some didn’t,” said Ben Casella, executive director of the New Jersey Farm Bureau. It can “rain here, but it may not rain on the other side of town,” he said.
Not all of that Monday rain was beneficial, said Andrew Frankenfield, educator with the Penn State Agriculture extension in Montgomery County. Some of the water in those downpours on Monday rushed to the gutters and didn’t stop to soak into the soil.
And those cloudbursts certainly weren’t beneficial to people routed from the World Cup fan fest in Fairmount Park, or to some motorists. Numerous water rescues were reported in the Wyncote section of Cheltenham Township, Montgomery County, And the weather service noted several reports of flooded streets and rushing water up to a foot deep floating cars in Germantown.
Tuesday’s gentle rains, Frankenfield said, were more beneficial to the plant life, which is only going to get thirstier as the summer progresses.
Is more rain coming to the Philly region?
Showers are possible Thursday, said Alex Staarmann, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, with a better shot Friday night and Saturday.
However, these may again be lottery-ball situations, something with which farmers are well acquainted.
Generally throughout the region through Monday, precipitation was running about 75% of normal, on average about 5 inches below normal, according to the river center, which bases its surveys on several measuring stations in each county.
The latest interagency U.S. Drought Monitor map had most of the region in “moderate drought,” but Cape May County and areas of New Jersey near Delaware Bay are in “extreme drought.” Those regions were all but shut out from the Monday downpours.
They evidently fared a bit better on Tuesday, with the Millville airport reporting about a third of an inch, and a half inch measured in Sea Isle City.
While the rains were welcome, the drought anxieties persist, Casella said.
“As we turn the calendar into July, the crops are going to need more moisture,” Frankenfield said.
“We certainly need more” rain, he said. “We can’t make it up in a week, we can’t make it up in a month. We’re concerned, but not alarmed.”
After 10 months of precipitation deficits, the Philadelphia region was due for some drought relief — but maybe not this much relief, this fast.
Powerful thunderstorms that set off tornado and severe-storm warnings and waterfall-like downpours arrived in the region Monday just in time for the peak afternoon commute and the France vs. Iraq World Cup match in South Philly.
And while the tornado warnings and the worst of the storms had backed off by nightfall, the rains were reluctant to give it up, and the National Weather Service warned that more heavy showers are possible Tuesday.
“It’s been a while since we had rains like this,” said Patrick O’Hara, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, which issued multiple flood warnings into the evening. Flooding occurred on the Schuylkill Expressway near Gladwyne, and several water rescues were reported in Cheltenham Township.
Frankford Creek in Philadelphia rose well into moderate flood stage.
The agency also had issued two tornado warnings for parts of Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties after Doppler radar had detected radar signatures.
Multiple uprooted trees were reported in the Valley Forge area, officials said. Several reports of downed wires and trees branches and hailstones came from across the region from Chester County and South Jersey.
The timing could have been worse, but maybe not much worse for World Cup participants and the nearly 70,000 fans who came to watch the rain-interrupted match.
A severe-storm warning for Philly popped up just as the World Cup match between France and Iraq in South Philly was underway. That was quickly followed by one for Southwest Philadelphia, parts of Delco, and South Jersey.
The weather service’s flash flood watch remained in effect until 6 a.m. Tuesday.
On Monday afternoon an early arriving strong storm passed through parts of Philadelphia and Burlington County, snapping trees and taking down “multiple branches” in the Holmesburg section of the city, the weather service said.
That was followed by a potent storm that generated strong winds and torrential rains north and west of the city and then even stronger storms and flooding downpours throughout the region.
Will the rains end the Philly region’s drought conditions?
Not likely. Life is not fair, and neither is summer rain, which by its nature is capricious.
About 1.2 inches of rain was measured at Philadelphia International Airport on Monday, with over an inch of that falling between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m.
The rains weren’t evenly distributed across the region, but the Philly total is of some significance: It brought the city’s total close to the normal for June.
Based on the forecasts of the potential for more substantial rains Tuesday, Phllly stands to break an impressive streak of 10 consecutive months of below-normal precipitation.
Most of the region is in “moderate drought” according to the inter-agency U.S. Drought Monitor, and Cape May County, most of Delaware, and New Jersey areas along the Delaware Bay are in “extreme drought.”
It is unclear how helpful Monday’s rains were in terms of dousing the drought condtions.
Downpours aren’t known for their attention spans, and rains can run off rapidly.
“If the rain doesn’t penetrate the soil, it doesn’t help,” said O’Hara, “Ideally, it would soak into the ground over a couple-day period. That would really help.”
After 10 months of precipitation deficits, the region is expected to experience severe storms and much-needed rain on Monday — unfortunately, the worst might coincide with the timing of the France vs. Iraq World Cup match in South Philly.
The strongest could arrive around the scheduled start of the match, at 5 p.m., said Brian Hurley, senior branch meteorologist with the federal Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md.
Given how daytime heating can add volatility to the atmosphere, with severe-thunderstorm threats in the Mid-Atlantic region, he said, in the late afternoon “we’re always asking for it.”
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which issues those severe storm watches, listed a 2% chance of tornadoes, and an “isolated” twister can’t be ruled out, said Nick Guzzo, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.
The storm center listed a 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds with gusts approaching 60 mph.
With the anticipated moisture capacity of the atmosphere on Monday, localized downpours that could wring up to 2 inches of rain in a hurry could set off localized flooding.
“Not everyone will get them,” said Hurley.
He said a round of heavy showers is likely in the late afternoon or early evening, and then it’s possible that rains will shut off, with even an outside shot at a rainbow.
But more rain is likely later at night and during the overnight hours.
Overall, forecasters said, just about every area of the region should get a half-inch of rain.
Officially, Philadelphia has had 10 consecutive months of below-normal precipitation. All of New Jersey and Chester County are under state-declared “drought emergencies,” although conditions have been improving.
Most of the rest of the region is in “moderate drought,” according to the interagency U.S. Drought Monitor.
On the plus side, no more extreme heat is in the forecast, with highs topping out in the 80s through next Sunday.
Given the atmosphere’s impatience, it would be understandable if some folks believe that the summer of 2026 began weeks ago.
But officially, the astronomical summer does not start until 4:24 a.m. Sunday, the instant of the solstice, when the sun beams its most direct light on the Tropic of Cancer. (That’s the one that bisects Mexico.)
Perhaps the pleasant temperatures this weekend are an overdue solstice gift to the region.
Officially, on 14 days this year, the temperature has reached at least 90 degrees at Philadelphia International Airport. While not a record — this happened 21 times before the 1991 summer solstice — that is a total more appropriate to midsummer. The annual average is about 30, and usually this kind of heat doesn’t get a jump start in mid-April.
Is it going to get hot again?
A woman walks past Swann Memorial Fountain as the sun rises last month.
Are polar bears white?
At least three veteran seasonal forecasters have commented that they expect the burgeoning El Niño event to work against punitive hot spells in the region.
During El Niño, sea-surface temperatures remain above normal in the tropical Pacific for several months, agitating the overlying air and affecting weather across the globe. This one may be among the strongest and is forecast to mature during the summer, earlier than usual.
During six early-developing strong El Niños, summer temperatures in Philadelphia were near or below average.
However, the scientists at the government’s Climate Prediction Center evidently are not buying it. In both the July and the July 1-through Aug. 31 outlooks posted Thursday, they saw the odds favoring above-normal temperatures.
On average Philly has a combined 20 days of 90-degree highs in July, when the Earth is the farthest it gets from the sun, and August. (Along with a September bonus of two more.)
How come it’s warmer, if we’re farther from the sun?
On average the Earth is about 93 million miles from the sun, but since its orbit is an imperfect circle the distance varies by roughly 3 million miles.
At 1 p.m. on July 6 our planet will be 94.5 million miles from the sun, by EarthSky’s calculation, its farthest distance of the year. It makes its annual closest approach in January, which is why winter in the Northern Hemisphere is the shortest season; the gravitational bump speeds up the trip, and February gets shortened.
The seasonal weather rhythms are about the Earth’s axial tilt, not distance from the sun, and the planet takes its time responding to the changes in solar energy. Just as January is colder than December on average, July is more than 5 degrees warmer in Philly than June on average. Just how warm it gets the rest of this summer may have a lot to do with how much drier it gets.
Will the drought conditions ever end?
They always have, but this has been quite an extraordinary run, even if the plant life has managed to avoid major distress.
The entire region, save for extreme northeastern Bucks County, is in a state of “severe drought,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with Cape May County in “extreme drought.”
The promised rain to start the workweek should help, but Philadelphia has experienced 10 consecutive months of below-normal precipitation, a rarity in an area in such proximity to bodies of water that are sources of rainfall. All of New Jersey and Chester County remain under drought emergencies.
Dryness can promote heating, since the sun does not have to divert energy evaporating water.
However, unusual coolness also can accompany dryness, said Sarah Johnson, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly. Having lived in North Dakota for 20 years, she knows her dry air.
A lack of moisture can be a boon for cooler nights. Water vapor in the air inhibits nighttime cooling by blocking heat from escaping into the atmosphere.
It also happens that less vapor in the air is ideal for sky-watching, and that could come in handy in August.
This could be a big year for the Perseids
In this long exposure photo, a Perseid meteor streaks above Madrid.
Last year, you may recall that the moon showed its big face during the peak of the annual Perseid meteor showers, the most popular of the year.
This time around, the moon is getting out of the way, and will be in its “new” phase during the peak early mornings of Aug. 12 and 13.
While the Geminids, which occur in December, are considered the most prolific showers of the year, according to the American Meteor Society, they are not as popular as the Perseids: People tend to prefer August nights to December’s.
The Perseids are so named because the cometic detritus that is ignited by the atmosphere appears to radiate from the constellation Perseus. In the early-morning hours, that typically is low in the northern sky.
Under ideal conditions — ultra-dark, light-pollution free skies — as many as 90 meteors an hour might be visible, EarthSky says.
But the moon will be the star in late August
Billy Penn waves at the moon during a lunar eclipse.
Two weeks after the Perseid peak, Philadelphia and most of the rest of the Western Hemisphere will be treated to a lunar eclipse in which just about all of the moon will be in shadow.
The show begins at 9:24 p.m. Aug. 28, and more than 90% of the moon will be obscured by Earth’s shadow three hours later. It willbe all over around 4 a.m.
Chances are excellent that the region will still be needing rain, but may it choose another night.
Like so many humans, perhaps the atmosphere is having issues adjusting to the time change. At the very least, it’s having trouble keeping track of the seasons.
After making a run at 70 degrees on a stormy Monday, on Tuesday it will be welcome back to hats and gloves in Philly.
Temperatures were forecast to fall to freezing by daybreak, which would be a drop of 35 to 40 degrees in less than 24 hours. In some years, that would rank among the biggest annual day-to-day temperature drops.
But this comes less than a week after the official readings plummeted from 83 degrees, normal for mid-June, to 35 in 24 hours, one of the largest day-to-day temperature swings in Philly’s climate record.
In official record-keeping dating to 1874 — covering more than 55,000 days — the Wednesday-to-Thursday shift would rank in the top 20 for day-to-day temperature tumbles, according to an Inquirer analysis.
“It’s really remarkable,” said Eric Balaban, pulmonary and critical care fellow at the Temple Lung Center.
He and other experts say that aside from what it may do to the morale of spring’s ardent fans, the thermal roller-coaster and the accompanying winds likely are having effects on health, particularly for people with respiratory cardiovascular conditions.
And we probably should expect to see the dramatic swings to continue for a while, said Matt Benz, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
“I’d be surprised if we didn’t, given the pattern we’ve being going through,” Benz said.
Why the temperature has been so jumpy lately in Philly
Philadelphia and other areas in the mid-latitudes are prone to become battlegrounds this time of year between the stubborn winter and the impatient spring.
March is notorious for temperature swings as cold air masses from the north encounter encroaching warmth and storms tend to form along the borders of the skirmishes.
One reason the contrasts have been especially vigorous this year is the obvious. “After this hard winter, that’s to be expected,” said Ray Martin, a lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service. We haven’t had many of those lately.
But that 48-degree drop last week belongs in an elite category. It ranked No. 18 among day-to-day temperature falls, based on the available records. The all-timer was the 57-degree drop from March 28 to 29 in 1921, with several 50-degree drops appearing in the record.
Whenever they occur, the radical shifts can have health consequences, according to medical experts and a variety of studies.
The possible health effects of rapid temperature changes
The temperature changes typically are set off by potent fronts, such as the one that crashed through the region on Monday, and they generate powerful winds.
By stirring particulate matter and transporting early tree pollens, the winds present a risk to those with respiratory conditions and allergies, said Manav N. Segal, with the Chestnut Hill Allergy & Asthma practice.
“We are seeing an increase in call volume already because of patients’ spring allergy symptoms,” he said Monday. And conditions this week are just a prequel: The allergy season will pick up steam once the weather turns more consistently warmer and the allergy season intensifies, he said.
Said Balaban, “People who have preexsiting conditions are simply at higher risk.”
Rapid changes in temperature and levels of atmospheric moisture with frontal passages can irritate the airways and increase airway inflammation, said Joann Martin, nurse with Guardian Nurses Healthcare Advocates in Flourtown, Montgomery County. Studies have shown associations between temperature variability and increased asthma-related hospital visits.
Changes in temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure — a measure of the weight of the air that falls as fronts approach and rises after they pass — are “recognized triggers for migraine and severe headaches.”
In addition, “Sudden temperature shifts can affect blood pressure, vascular tone, and cardiac workload,” Martin said, increasing the changes for heart attacks and strokes.
For most people, however, after a long winter, the temperature drops are a source of frustration over the delay of a much-anticipated spring.
More temperature swings are likely in coming weeks in the Philly region
For now, at least, it appears that the region’s cherry blossoms should be safe, even though temperatures Tuesday morning were expected to come close to freezing in Philly and may fall into the upper 20s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Daytime highs won’t be much higher than 40 Tuesday and Wednesday, before a modest warmup begins.
It likely would take a serious late-March or early-April freeze to damage the blossoms, said Sandi Polyakov, head gardener for the Japan America Society of Greater Philadelphia. He expects a bloom peak in early April.
Coinciding with the expected behavior of the atmosphere over Philly, the clocks are taking a major leap into spring this weekend, this time around as early as it ever happens.
On Sunday the clocks will skip right over 2 a.m. and proceed to 3 a.m. as daylight saving time begins and will continue throughNov. 1.
The sun won’t set before 7 p.m. until Sept. 22.
Congratulations to those who prefer eating dinner before dark or savoring an extra dose of daylight after work. If you dread being shorted an hour on a precious weekend and hold that DST actually stands for “delayed sunrise time,” we offer a modest consolation prize.
The sun appears to be setting on the all-DST-all-the-time movement.
Recall that the U.S. Senate unanimously (at least technically) passed the 2022 iteration of the Sunshine Protection Act that would have ditched the switch and installed daylight saving time as the year-round system. U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D., Pa.) said at the time “the idea definitely has legs,” and isn’t that what they said about the Eagles’ offense?
It’s as if the campaign has gone back to bed.
The 2022 bill’s sponsor, Marco Rubio, at the time a senator representing the Sunshine State, is now the secretary of state and appears to have bigger fish to fry. His immediate supervisor, President Donald Trump, who at different timesadvocated for year-round standard and year-round DST, has lost interest.
So, evidently, have legions of state lawmakers around the country.
The number of bills calling for year-round daylight saving time has dropped dramatically, and this year they are far outnumbered by bills advocating year-round standard time, based on a survey of data compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
That said, the discussion may never die. The Sunshine Protection Act was reintroduced in the Senate last year. Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.) says he’s giving it another shot. But expect 100% chance that clocks go back in the fall; the bill remains in committee.
To honor a day that so many look forward to, and so many others dread, we offer a few numbers for consideration, starting with a visit to Marquette, Mich.
79: Minutes of difference in sunrise times
Sunrise Monday in Marquette doesn’t occur until 8:11 a.m., compared with 6:52 a.m. in Lubec, Maine. That is a 79-minute difference — in the same time zone. Lubec is on the shores of the Atlantic. Marquette is on the shores of Lake Superior in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
In Marquette, the sun’s reluctance to get out of bed may be understandable. The city already has had close to 210 inches of snow (about 10 Philly winters’ worth) this season. “Even by our standards, this has been a pretty remarkable winter,” said Chris Burling, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Marquette.
As with the snow, the locals appear to accept the late sunrises with a measure of equanimity. “I think there’s some grumbling for a couple days,” said Burling, “but otherwise, it’s just …that’s how it is.”
Sleep experts advise that people in the westerly longitudes of time zones stand to suffer more than their counterparts to the east. In Marquette, twilight won’t end until close to 10:30 p.m. around the summer solstice. That can be disruptive to bodily sleep rhythms, experts say, by depriving bodies of melatonin, the sleep hormone that the body produces in the dark.
The Michigan legislature is among those that have considered a bill for year-round standard time. Federal law permits states to go all-standard, but all-daylight saving time would require Congress to pass a law to allow it.
800: Pro-daylight saving time bills
Eight hundred bills have been introduced in state legislatures since 2005 to enact year-round daylight saving time, according to Tom Klein, policy associate with the legislatures conference.
93: Time-change bills in 2025
There were 93 bills introduced in 2025 in favor of either year-round Daylight Saving Time or standard time.
35: States
Thirty-five states considered such bills in 2025, about evenly split between all-DST and all-standard, by the conference’s count.
21: Bills this year
In 2026, 21 bills are under consideration, with 16 calling for year-round standard time and five favoring all-Daylight Saving Time.
1,454: Days
It’s been 1,454days since the U.S. Senate approved the Sunshine Protection Act.
Just 238days until we fall backward again. Incidentally, since Daylight Saving Time begins on the second Sunday in March, this is the earliest it could happen. Nov. 1 is the earliest possible starting date for standard time.
Innumerable
Projected number of days before the clock-switch debate ends.
Temperatures in the Philly region may not visit freezing again until the end of next week, with a run of 70-degree days possible in the interim. And after some substantial winter napping, the region’s plant life is going to notice.
They allow that while it wasn’t exactly a vacation, spending five weeks and change under a glacier and snowpacks hasn’t been all bad for the plant life.
But as the great thaw accelerates, they have cautionary words for home gardeners: Watch your step.
And meteorologists warn that if you expect the thaw to be linear, you clearly have wandered into the wrong part of the country. Winter and spring are still in a nasty turf war that can turn ugly in March in the Northeast.
Five weeks under the covers had benefits for Philly’s plant life
Officially, Philadelphia has logged 36 days of snow cover of at least one inch, including 23 consecutive days after the Jan. 25 snow-and-ice fest. The timing of that snowpack was fortuitous in that it “insulated the ground, protecting perennials, grasses, and marginally hardy bulbs” from the Arctic freezes that followed, said Lisa Roper, horticulturalist at Chanticleer Garden in Wayne.
Horticulturist Lisa Roper tends to echinacea Tennesseensis at the Gravel Garden at Chanticleer in this file photo. She says the snow offered a measure of protection for the plants.
Said Sky Deswert, garden educator with the Norris Square Neighborhood Project in Philly, “Without the snow, there is a greater risk that dormant plants and roots will suffer from the cold.”
The snow was beneficial “to things like blue hydrangeas, insulating the stems from the cold,” said Bill Cullina, executive director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Morris Arboretum & Gardens in Chestnut Hill.
Overall, said Roger Davis, a landscape manager at Longwood Gardens in Chester County, “Snow cover does not typically cause any problems for most plants in our home gardens.”
Unfortunately, it also typically doesn’t cause problems for voles, those plant-nibbling so-called field mice that evidently had a field day.
But the winter also offered significant challenges
“Voles have been active underground, eating roots and even the crowns of grasses and perennials,” said Cullina. Snow has given voles ideal cover from an impressive lists of predators, including owls, foxes, raccoons, and cats.
They can kill shrubs and small trees by chewing at ground level, said Chanticleer’s Roper.
Deer also have been nuisances. “Heavy snow cover makes it difficult for deer to find food,” she said. “The deer will start to eat plants they typically leave alone.”
At Morris Arboretum, Cullina said, “They have been browsing needled evergreens that they normally ignore.”
Bill Cullina shown here in this file photo in front of a a red oak tree at the Morris Arboretum. Beware of “mud time,” he advises.
He added that frost-heaving, in which soil expands and contracts with fluctuating temperatures, is back after taking off much of this century. “This can force recently planted perennials and even shrubs as well as bulbs out of the ground.”
Said Roper, “Keep your eye out for plants pushed out of the ground; you can stick them back in if you see them.”
Some of the broad-leaved evergreens, such as rhododendron and hollies, may have suffered from “the combined effects of sun reflecting off the snow and frozen ground that prevents water uptake,” said Cullina. That can lead to leaf burn and defoliation.
“Not much you can do at this point except wait until the plants leaf out …and then prune off any dead branches,” he said.
Shrubs planted near the eaves of houses may have suffered from another hazard — rooftop snow, said Theresa Smith, senior vice president of NaturLawn, a national lawn service company with several outlets in the region. “When you have snow falling off in heavy pieces, it’s definitely going to damage some of those softer plants.”
And beware of salt damage on lawns, particularly near well-salted roads and driveways, said Smith. Salt can dehydrate vegetation. She also warned that prolonged snow cover can yield bumper crops of “snow mold,” a fungus that thrives in cold, moist conditions.
If you see those unsightly straw-colored mold patches, rake them out and put down grass seed on the bare spots, Roper said.
‘Mud season’ has arrived in Philly. Watch where you step.
The ground has assumed a certain spongelike quality now that most of the snow is melted, and it’s going to take some time to wring out the sponge.
Cullina said that reminiscent of his native Maine, it “feels like Philly is getting a little taste of mud season this year.”
Smith strongly advises gardeners to keep off the mud as much as possible. “You don’t want to add to the compaction that’s already there,” she said.
The tighter the soil gets, said Longwood’s Davis, the more it reduces the air spaces. “Foot traffic has more effect on wet soil than you might think.”
And beware the moods of March
Smith cautions against yielding to an agricultural spring fever, despite the promising temperature forecast for the next several days. Starting Sunday, the high temperatures could reach 70 degrees on four or five days, said Bob Larsen, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
Smith votes for harnessing planting ambitions during March, a notorious transitional month when the aggressive warm air masses clash with the retreating winter.
Her birthday is in March, and she recalls receiving snow as a not necessarily welcome birthday present more than once.
Philadelphia’s last verified blizzard occurred in March, in 1993; in 1958 over 50 inches of snow fell upon Morgantown, Chester County, during the so-called equinox storm, and 20 inches fell in Philly on April 1, 1915.
Our coverage of the 1958 Equinox Storm.
“Home gardeners just need to relax a little bit,” she said, “and wait for the weather patterns to become more consistent.”
Climate change’s rising seas may threaten tens of millions more people than scientists and government planners originally thought because of mistaken research assumptions on how high coastal waters already are, a new study said.
Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments, calculating that about 90% of them underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of 1 foot, according to Wednesday’s study in the journal Nature. The problem arises far more frequently in the Global South, the Pacific, and Southeast Asia, and less in Europe and along the Atlantic coasts.
The cause is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured, said study coauthor Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University and Research in the Netherlands. And he attributed that to a “methodological blind spot” between the different ways those two things are measured.
Each way measures its own areas properly, he said. But where sea meets land, there are a lot of factors that often do not get accounted for when satellites and land-based models are used. Studies that calculate sea level rise impact usually “do not look at the actual measured sea level, so they used this zero-meter” figure as a starting point, said lead author Katharina Seeger of the University of Padua in Italy. In some places in the Indo-Pacific, the figure is close to 1 meter, or about 3 feet, Minderhoud said.
One simple way to understand that is that many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, when the reality at the water’s edge is of oceans constantly roiled by wind, tides, currents, changing temperatures, and things like El Niño, Minderhoud and Seeger said.
Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet — as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century — waters could inundate up to 37% more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said.
That would trigger problems in planning and paying for the impacts of a warming world.
People at risk
“You have a lot of people here for whom the risk of extreme flooding is much higher than people thought,” said Anders Levermann, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany, who was not part of the study. Southeast Asia, where the study finds the biggest discrepancy, has the most people already threatened by sea level rise, he said.
Minderhoud pointed to island nations in that region as an area where the reality of discrepancy hits home.
For 17-year-old climate activist Vepaiamele Trief, the projections are not abstract. On her island home in the South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu, the shoreline has visibly retreated within her short lifetime, with beaches eroded, coastal trees uprooted, and some homes now barely 3 feet from the sea at high tide. On her grandmother’s island of Ambae, a coastal road from the airport to her village has been rerouted inland because of encroaching water. Graves have been submerged and entire ways of life feel under threat.
“These studies, they aren’t just words on a paper. They aren’t just numbers. They’re people’s actual livelihoods,” she said. “Put yourself in the shoes of our coastal communities — their lives are going to be completely overturned because of sea level rise and climate change.”
Paying attention to the starting point
This new study is pretty much about what is the truth on the ground.
Calculations that may be correct for the seas overall or for the land are not quite right at that key intersection point of water and land, Seeger and Minderhoud said. That is especially true in the Pacific.
“To understand how much higher a piece of land is than the water, you need to know the land elevation and the water elevation. And what this paper says the vast majority of studies have done is to just assume that zero in your land elevation data set is the level of the water — when, in fact, it’s not,” said sea level rise expert Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central. His 2019 study was one of the few the new paper said got it right.
“It’s just the baseline that you start from that people are getting wrong,” said Strauss, who was not part of the research.
Maybe not so bad, some scientists say
Other outside scientists said that Minderhoud and Seeger may be making too much of the problem.
“I think they’re exaggerating the implications for impact studies a bit — the problem is actually well understood, albeit addressed in a way that could probably be improved,” said Gonéri Le Cozannet, a scientist at the French geological survey. Most local planners know their coastal issues and plan accordingly, Rutgers University sea level expert Robert Kopp said.
That’s true in Vietnam, in the high-impact area, Minderhoud said. Officials there have an accurate sense of elevation, he said.
The findings come as a new UNESCO report warns of major gaps in understanding how much carbon the ocean absorbs. That report said that models differ by 10% to 20% in estimating the size of that carbon sink, raising questions about the accuracy of global climate projections that rely on them.
Together, the studies suggest governments may be planning for coastal and climate risks with an incomplete picture of how the ocean is changing.
“When the ocean comes closer, it takes away more than just the land we used to enjoy,” said Thompson Natuoivi, a climate advocate for Save the Children Vanuatu.
“Sea level rise is not just changing our coastline, it’s changing our lives. We are not talking about the future — we’re talking about the right now.”
“Why would you not want to study the thing that lets you study,” said Schechtman-Taylor, a senior from New York City. “The brain, that’s our entire world.”
Neuroscience has become the most popular major on the highly selective liberal arts campus on Philadelphia’s Main Line, counting nearby Bryn Mawr College students who also take classes at Haverford. And it’s only been around since 2021 when the two colleges — which have had a minor in the discipline since 2013 — decided to administer the joint major.
At Haverford, there were 24 majors the year it started; now there are 60. Bryn Mawr saw similar growth and currently has 49. Enrollment in Haverford’s neuroscience classes including both Bryn Mawr and Haverford students grew from 154 in 2014 to nearly 800 last fall.
“We knew that neuroscience was going to be popular, but we did not anticipate this growth,” said Helen White, Haverford’s provost, who noted the school recently hired another neuroscience professor to accommodate more students.
The major’s popularity is also growing at schools around the Philadelphia region — and across the country. Students and professors say neuroscience is popular because it’s interdisciplinary, involving psychology, biology, and chemistry, and can lead to a variety of careers. It can also be personal, because it involves studying diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, which have no cures, and the treatment of strokes and traumatic brain injuries.
“I would say about 90% of my students are coming into my lab because they have someone in their family with one of these diseases,” said Rob Fairman, a Haverford biology professor whose research focuses on neuroscience.
Haverford senior Alina Schechtman-Taylor, 21, of New York City, works as a teacher assistant in professor Laura Been’s lab.
A growing major
In 2008, 110 colleges nationally offered neuroscience majors; now, it’s about 330, said Raddy Ramos, associate professor in the Department of Biomedical Sciences at the New York Institute of Technology. Ramos, who coauthored studies on the topic, said there were more than 2,000 neuroscience graduates in 2008; in 2019, that number had grown to more than 7,200.
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Pennsylvania is a hot spot, with 36 colleges having programs in 2022-23, Ramos said — more than than any other state.
Drexel University, which has had a minor since 2015, launched its undergraduate major in neuroscience in 2024.
“We have seen a 45% increase in applications over the last two years,” a university spokesperson said.
Pennsylvania State University in November announced it was launching two new undergraduate majors in neuroscience, one offered by the biology department and the other by the biobehavioral health department.
Students look for sections of rat brains that match the sections projected on the screen in a Haverford College lab.
Neuroscience has become especially popular among pre-med majors, school officials say. Otherpotential career paths include biotechnology, pharmacology, psychology, and neuroengineering, while somestudents go on to law school, business, or public policy.
“There’s a lot more awareness that mental health conditions are due to changes in the brain, and people want to understand that,” said Lisa Briand, associate professor and program director for Temple University’s neuroscience program.
At Temple, neuroscience has become the fourth largest of 30 majors in liberal arts, Briand said. The psychology department a few years ago changed its name to psychology and neuroscience, she said.
At the University of Pennsylvania a decade ago, 100 to 120 neuroscience majors graduated annually, said Lori Flanagan-Cato, associate professor of psychology and codirector of the undergraduate neuroscience program.
“Twice in the past 3 years we have had over 150,” she said.
Swarthmore College, a highly selective small liberal arts college, graduated 10 to 12 neuroscience majors a year about a decade ago, said Frank Durgin, professor of psychology who oversees the program.
“This year, we anticipate graduating 24 majors,” he said. “Next year, it’s 30.”
The college has added two professors in the last two years to accommodate growth, he said.
Why students study neuroscience
In a lab at Haverford one afternoon last month, 16 students in white lab coats poked with paintbrush tips at thin slices of rat brain in preservative fluid, preparing to stain them to look for which neurons were activated. Some of the rats received the drug Ritalin, commonly used for attention deficit disorder, while others did not. Students were trying to discern differences in their brains when they performed certain tasks, said Laura Been, associate professor of psychology and director of the bi-college neuroscience program.
A neuroscience student works with sections of rats’ brains in a lab at Haverford College.
“We can … try to learn something more about how this sort of drug treatment impacts the brain,” said Been, whose area of interest is behavioral neuroendocrinology, which looks at the relationship between hormones, the brain, and behavior.
Students in Been’s class had varied reasons for studying neuroscience.
Emily Black, visiting assistant professor of neuroscience at Haverford College, helps Savannah Shaw, 22, of Downingtown, during neuroscience lab work. “I really like the variety of the classes we can take in the major,” said Shaw, a senior who plans to go to medical school, possibly to become a neurologist. “You can go more the psychology route or go more biology.”
Sophia Lipari, 21, a junior from Jacksonville, Fla., whose father is a reproductive endocrinologist, is interested in hormones and the field of fertility.
Riley Fass, 20, a junior from Claremont, Calif., wants to be a special-education teacher. She already sees the connection between neuroscience and her job as a teacher’s assistant at a school where children have traumatic brain injuries and cerebral palsy.
“The topics we discuss — an injury here will result in this — I can actually see it in my students,” she said.
Iris Goxhaj (left), 21, of Northeast Philadelphia, and Riley Fass, 20, of Claremont, Calif., work with sections of rats’ brains in a lab at Haverford College.
Deeya Abrol’s interest was stoked when she worked with a child on the autism spectrum as a swim instructor. Abrol, 22, a senior from Los Gatos, Calif., plans to go to medical school.
Schechtman-Taylor meanwhile wants to pursue biomedical engineering and specifically developing medicines for the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders.
“I want to work on the treatment side,” she said.
Fairman, the Haverford biology professor, said a recent graduate’s mother had died of Huntington’s disease, meaning she has a 50% chance of getting it, he said. She worked in his lab and wanted to be involved in hisresearchon protein clumping in the brain and its effect on diseases such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s.
Rob Fairman, a professor of biology at Haverford College, and student Liv Davis are testing the effects of natural products on animal models with neurodegenerative diseases.
Junior Liv Davis, 21, wanted to help find a cure for Parkinson’s, which struck her grandmother in 2020.
“She’s had two falls in the last year and a half because it’s progressed pretty quickly,” said Davis, of Lanoka Harbor, N.J. “It’s hard to see someone you love so much live with it, but it makes it all the more rewarding to work toward fixing it.”
Davis, who has worked in Fairman’s lab since her freshman year, tried to get into an introduction to neuroscience class early on. But there wasn’t room. She ended up majoring in biology, which she thinks probably would have happened anyway.
About half the students working in Fairman’s lab are neuroscience majors, he said.
Davis is currently studying the effect of a chemical on sleeping fruit flies that have been genetically modified to carry the protein associated with Parkinson’s.
Last summer, she received an inaugural research fellowship funded by Shamir Khan, a Haverford alumnus and psychologist who was diagnosed with early-onset Parkinson’s.
Her grandmother was glad she could continue the research, said Davis, who plans to become a doctor.
“She always jokes with me,” Davis said. “‘Give me a spoonful of that chemical, whatever it is. If you need a test subject, you let me know.’”
Robert Koopmeiners is up to here with this winter and is among the masses more than ready for the atmosphere to flip the switch.
“It’s getting kind of old,” he said. But he wasn’t complaining about Arctic freezes, or winter storms, or black ice, or hideously darkening mountains of plowed snow.
He was talking about the weather in Colorado, where he is a National Weather Service meteorologist, where bone-dry Denver has set nine high-temperature records since Dec. 1, where wildfire alerts were in effect, and water is getting scarce.
Warm West, cold East, and vice versa are standard fares in the great national atmospheric seesaw that hasn’t been doing much seesawing lately, as if a boulder has been placed atop our end of it.
That’s the result of an atmospheric roadblock for the ages in the high latitudes around Greenland, meteorologists say, that has allowed winter to reappear with a ferocity not experienced in several years in the Northeast, and a winterlong spring in parts of the West. The cold in the East may even be related to rising global temperatures.
The result for the Philadelphia region has been one of the colder and snowier meteorological winters — the Dec. 1 to Feb. 28 period — on record. Officially Philadelphia has had more days of snow cover of an inch or more than in the five seasons ending with the winter of 2023-24 combined.
After quite a wintry start to the new week, with even some more snow possible, a major warmup is due to begin with a spring teaser possible next weekend. (It may turn colder the second half of the month, but that can wait.)
In the meantime, the atmosphere is enjoying a belly laugh over the preseason outlooks for the winter of 2025-26.
Philadelphia’s winter scorecard
By convention, the weather community divides the seasons into three-month increments. In part that’s in recognition of the fact that weather often has an adversarial relationship with astronomy. For example, it has snowed, and hit 90 degrees, in the astronomical spring, the period between the vernal equinox and summer solstice.
The day before Easter in 1915, Philadelphia was socked with 19 inches of snow, despite a forecast of “Unsettled, rain likely.”
For the three-month 2025-26 winter period, official temperatures at Philadelphia International Airport have averaged a shade over 33 degrees, putting it in the top third for coldest winters in the period of record dating to the late 19th century.
The official snow total is in the top 20% of all winters on record. The normal through February is just under 20 inches.
AccuWeather Inc. and 6abc went with 14 to 18 inches. Fox29 called for16 inches, and 17 days of snow cover. At last count, that snow-cover count was up to at least 35. Other forecast services called for normal — 23.1 inches — or slightly above-normal snowfall.
Regarding temperatures, all the outlooks foresaw normal — thethree-month averageis 36.1 degrees — to above-normal temperatures for the Philly region, save for Arcfield Weather, a private-sector company, which went for below.
Nicole Swinson looks into Penn’s Landing while standing in the snow on Monday, Feb. 23, 2026.
‘Blocking’ has been the leitmotif of Philly’s winter
If it seemed that what happened kept happening, that was more than perception.
It was the result of particularly vigorous “blocking” in the vicinity of Greenland in which high pressure, or heavier air, persistsin the upper atmosphere. It was a massive obstruction that kept directing cold air and storms toward the East while toasting the West, said Climate Prediction Center branch chief Jon Gottschalck.
The East got stuck under a “trough” of upper-air low pressure that favored storminess and cold, he added. The West, quite the opposite.
“The blocking pulled the storms eastward, and the cold followed,” said Paul Pastelok, Accuweather’s longtime seasonal forecaster. “We should have caught on to that.”
In addition, an upper-air pressure pattern over the Arctic — the Arctic Oscillation — was stuck in its negative phase from December until recently, said climate center meteorologist Laura Ciasto, with negative consequences for local winter-phobes.
When it’s negative, the weather-moving west-to-east jet stream winds can become more active at the midlatitudes where we live, and the conditions colder and stormier. The oscillation has had “an interesting winter,” she said. “Typically,” she said, “we expect the AO to fluctuate.”
Related to the oscillation’s behavior were episodes of “polar vortex stretching,“ said Ciasto. The vortex’s powerful winds usually trap cold air in the Arctic, but on occasion they weaken and ”stretch,“ allowing cold air to spill southward.
Another explanation for why the forecasts went awry may be an obvious one: We’re not used to this level of Arctic cold or prodigious snowfalls like the Sunday-Monday event that creamed parts of the region with 20 inches or more. “We have simply gone many years without experiencing a storm like this,” said Owen Shieh, warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
Did the world suddenly grow colder?
No, the planet didn’t cool off precipitously. In fact, said Pastelok, the blocking may have been related to warming-related sea-ice reductions near Greenland. The solar energy absorbed by freshly freed waters could have effects on pressure patterns in the high atmosphere, he said, adding that for now, that’s only a hypothesis.
While the world evidently cooled slightly last year after a record 2024, according to NOAA’s database, it’s still about 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th-century average, the supply of Arctic air isn’t quite as it used to be.
As it turns out, Philly’s winters in the 21st century have trended milder, with average temperatures about 2 degrees Fahrenheit above long-term averages.
The overall warming trend has been one reason the climate center has had the odds favoring above-normal winter temperatures for Philly for the last seven consecutive winters. And they indeed were above normal for six straight years — but not seven.
Retired climate center forecaster Mike Halpert once remarked that while sticking with the trend can be a smart bet, “some years you’re going to be woefully wrong.”