After a spring training workout in February, Kyle Schwarber contemplated the likelihood of the Phillies keeping most of the roster’s core intact through the end of the decade.
“I think we would love to all finish our careers together,” he said. “But who would want to come out and watch a bunch of 40-year-old dudes play baseball? Right?”
Well …
Schwarber will be only 37 when his newly minted five-year, $150 million contract expires in 2030. Bryce Harper will be 38 by then; Trea Turner and Aaron Nola 37; even Cristopher Sánchez will be 34. All will have no-trade rights, if they don’t already.
Maybe they will have World Series rings, too. In that case, the 42,000 fans who pack Citizens Bank Park on random weeknights in June won’t mind watching them ease into baseball old age together. Flags fly forever, you know.
But modern front offices obsess over long-term plans more than trying to win a championship one season at a time. Sustainability is their buzzword. Most whiz-kid general managers would look you in the eye and say that five-year contracts for 33-year-old designated hitters coming off 56-homer seasons are bad business. Don’t even get them started on multiyear deals for 35-year-old catchers who still play 130 games per year.
At 69, Dave Dombrowski is no kid. But five World Series appearances with four franchises and two titles make him a team-building wiz. And although he has hitched the Phillies’ hopes in 2026 and probably 2027 mostly to a handful of thirtysomething superstars, he outlined a second part of the plan that’s essential to success in 2028 and 2029, too.
“I’ve said this all along, and I still believe this: We need to start working our young players into our [roster],” Dombrowski said this week at baseball’s winter meetings in the shadow of Disney World. “We have good young players, and we’ll be better for it. I do think that good organizations can blend young players with veterans.”
Look no further than the sport’s model organization.
Since 2023, the Dodgers have spent more than $1 billion on player salaries, including a record $415 million this year (calculated for the luxury tax, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Yet they had 25 players make their major league debut, including center fielder Andy Pages, infielder Hyeseong Kim, and pitchers Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Jack Dreyer, Roki Sasaki, and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Conversely, the Phillies had 12 major league debuts in the last three seasons — fewer than any team, based on Fangraphs research — with setup reliever Orion Kerkering and reserve outfielder Johan Rojas having the most impact.
Dombrowski attributed the low graduation rate from the minor leagues to “a combination of factors,” including a veteran-laden roster that stayed mostly healthy relative to other teams and allowed few opportunities for call-ups.
But it will be different in 2026. It has to be.
Because it’s one thing to reunite Schwarber — and probably free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, too — with Harper, Turner, Nola, Sánchez, and Zack Wheeler on one of the majors’ oldest rosters and take a few more whacks at an elusive championship. It’s quite another to realize that long-term success — beyond, say, 2027, when Wheeler intends to retire — is tied to how good Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aidan Miller end up being.
“We have some really exciting talent that’s going to be coming up, and you’re looking forward to whenever they can step foot in the big-league locker room,” Schwarber said. “You want to make them feel like they’re going to be welcomed right away and feel like there’s going to be a seamless transition for them.”
And even as the Phillies bring back the band, the maturation of their next core will be an equally important 2026 storyline.
A new ‘Daycare’
When the Phillies returned to the postseason in 2022, the lineup included three, sometimes four players who were 25 or younger: Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Matt Vierling.
Teammates and coaches dubbed them “Phillies Daycare.”
Although Bohm, Stott, and Marsh became solid contributors after Rob Thomson took over as manager (Vierling got traded to the Tigers for lefty reliever Gregory Soto), they’re mostly supporting actors rather than leading men in the Phillies’ ensemble. And as they outgrew their moniker — “They’re not the ‘Daycare’ anymore,” Harper finally declared last spring — there wasn’t another class coming behind them.
“Well, we traded quite a few players that could have been contributing members,” Dombrowski said, citing Vierling specifically. “We traded them for more veteran type of players to help us win at that particular time.”
Dombrowski also noted that five of the Phillies’ last six first-round picks — including Mick Abel (2020), Painter (2021), Crawford (2022), and Miller (2023) — were drafted out of high school, which typically means a longer path through the minors.
And when the Phillies did punch the accelerator and gave Painter a chance to make the team out of spring training as a 19-year-old in 2023, he tore a ligament in his right elbow, had Tommy John surgery, and missed two seasons.
The Phillies planned to call up Painter midway through this past season. But he struggled to regain his preinjury command, common for pitchers in the first year back from surgery. Painter stayed in triple A, and finished with a 5.40 ERA in 106⅔ innings.
“Honestly, some of the expectations we put on players is unfair,” minor league director Luke Murton told The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “A guy that’s just coming back from Tommy John that pitched over 100 innings, was healthy, and at a level he’d never been at, I was very pleased, very satisfied.
“I think he accomplished a ton this year. Next year he’s looking forward to accomplishing more.”
Painter stands a good chance to crack the season-opening rotation, especially if Wheeler needs more time after thoracic outlet decompression surgery. And the Phillies expect Painter’s long-awaited arrival in the majors to help lessen the anticipated loss of Ranger Suárez in free agency.
Dombrowski has all but guaranteed Crawford’s spot in the opening-day lineup, either in center field or left. The Phillies came close this summer to calling up the 21-year-old but elected to leave him in triple A to win a batting title, especially after acquiring veteran center fielder Harrison Bader at the trade deadline.
“I really believe that [Crawford] could have played for us at some point,” Dombrowski said. “But then you also do what you think is best for the player and for us in that time period. You’re trying to win a championship. And it didn’t hurt him to go out and continue to play [in triple A].
“But now, all of a sudden, you’re in a position where you’ve got Crawford and you’ve got Painter knocking on the door. Miller’s close; [outfielder Gabriel] Rincones is close. [Otto] Kemp came up for us last year, and we like Kemp a lot. There’s others that we like. It’s exciting.”
Also, necessary.
‘Close your eyes and let ‘em play’
Including Schwarber’s new deal, the Phillies have roughly $285 million in 2026 payroll commitments, calculated for the luxury tax. Bringing back Realmuto would likely push the total past $300 million.
And still, there are holes in the outfield and bullpen.
The Phillies have explored trading from the major league roster to create payroll flexibility, according to sources. Moving Bohm, entering his free-agent walk year, would clear approximately $10.3 million based on MLB Trade Rumors’ salary arbitration projections.
In that case, the Phillies could look inward to find Bohm’s replacement at third base. One possibility: Kemp, who made his major league debut this year and has drawn effusive praise from Dombrowski throughout the offseason.
“He’s a good hitter. The ball jumps off his bat,” Dombrowski said. “He’s a threat when he comes to the plate. He can play different positions. And he’s a tough son of a gun. He’s a championship-type player. What he played through last year, injury-wise, I don’t think that there’s many people that would have done that.”
Indeed, Kemp continued to play despite fracturing his left kneecap in June and finished with eight homers and a 92 OPS-plus. He had knee surgery and a minor procedure on his left shoulder after the season. The Phillies expect him to be ready for spring training.
Before long, third base could belong to Miller. Murton said the touted 21-year-old shortstop will move to third in spring training. Miller spent the last week of the season in triple A and could return for only a pit stop after finishing with 14 homers, 59 stolen bases, and an .825 OPS between two levels.
Could he follow Crawford and Painter as a major league debutant in 2026?
“You never know,” Murton said. “He’s a very talented player. Don’t want to put too much on him too soon. He’ll be a big-league spring-training invite. You bring him in and see what we’ve got.”
The timing lines up. As Harper posts Instagram videos of his elective blood-oxygenation treatments, the Phillies can finally inject fresh blood into the roster, acclimatizing Crawford, Painter, and eventually Miller while the old guard is still elite and bearing most of the pressure.
“We just need them performing to their best abilities,” Schwarber said. “We don’t need anyone feeling like they need to step out and be Superman. We don’t need them worrying about, ‘How does Schwarber, how does Trea Turner, how does Bryce Harper, how does whoever think about what I’m doing?’”
Said Thomson: “I always think, when you bring a young guy up, close your eyes and let him play. No matter what happens, he gets two, three months, whatever you want to give him, and don’t even talk. Just let him go. The guys that we have at the upper level of our system are performers, and eventually they’re going to perform.”
It’s not just overdue. It’s imperative to keeping the Phillies’ roster from going stale.
