If you want to keep beating your head against the wall, keep expecting Jalen Hurts to turn into Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
If you want to preserve your sanity, however, just accept Hurts as a complementary player.
That’s not an insult. It’s objective analysis. He’s playing a little bit better than his draft projection, which, on the NFL’s website in 2020, read thus:
“Slow recognition of early throw opportunities. Leaves slants and crossers behind targets. Misses check-downs. … Quick to drop his eyes when pressure mounts. … He’ll struggle to beat NFL defenses from the pocket.”
Granted, these were the most negative aspects of Hurts’ profile, which projected him as a second-round pick who might one day develop into a competent starter. Which, to date, is exactly what he became.
Look around the league. Philadelphia is lucky to have him.
He’s a competent starter with a few special gifts. He is a tireless worker, a steady hand on the tiller, a fine runner, fearless, tough, accurate, with exquisite touch on deep passes. He is not the total package. To expect him to be so only courts disappointment.
Eagles first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo might not be calling all the best plays, and his sequencing might be imperfect, but the consensus among analysts and several Eagles sources is that Patullo’s not the problem. Hurts is missing wide-open receivers, sometimes missing multiple receivers on the same play, even when he’s not pressured.
But no sane entity in the Eagles’ organization, to my extensive knowledge, is wishing for Hurts to be replaced by Tanner McKee, who has yet to take a meaningful snap in a meaningful game since being drafted in the sixth round three years ago.
Hurts played his best in 2022, which was his second season with offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, now the coach in Indianapolis. He was superb at times in 2024 under Kellen Moore, who’d coached and coordinated Dak Prescott for five years in Dallas; Prescott had a similar pedigree and projection as Hurts.
This year the Eagles hoped Hurts would develop past the need for an experienced coordinator. He has not.
Have there been streaks over the years in which Hurts looks like a star? Sure. Has he produced in several big games? Absolutely.
But the league clearly caught up with him after that first Pro Bowl season in 2022, when his legs were as much as a weapon as his feet. He is running far less frequently this season, on pace for 119 runs, which would be his career low as a starter. The player we’ve seen for large stretches of the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons matches that NFL.com draft profile better than it matches the Super Bowl LIX MVP.
Hurts isn’t the superstar owner Jeffrey Lurie and the Jordan Brand wish he was. Rather, he’s at the right place at the right time. He finds himself surrounded by elite talent on both sides of the ball, led by a very good coaching staff, with the NFL‘s best owner and its best GM. Together, they make it work. They win, a lot. But when good defenses set their minds to making Hurts beat them, and disguise their defenses, winning is less certain and much uglier. That’s what has happened in 2025.
There are other issues, of course. Chief among them: Twelve games in, the projected starting offensive line has yet to start and finish consecutive games, and probably won’t do so for at least three more weeks. The defense started poorly but has improved. Saquon Barkley isn’t as explosive, and his debut as an Eagle in 2024 was the best season a back has ever had, and that provided the best sort of camouflage for Hurts.
Most big-money quarterbacks are asked to be the best player, but Hurts’ real job is to complement players who are better at their job than he is at his, when compared with players who play their positions. Led by Barkley, those players include, without question, receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and linemen Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, and Lane Johnson. Tight end Dallas Goedert and center Cam Jurgens might qualify, too.
That’s no insult to Hurts. It’s really a compliment to Howie Roseman, who acquired them all, including Hurts, at excellent draft and salary values.
It’s true that a better quarterback would not be diminishing prime years of Brown, Smith, Barkley, and Goedert. But Hurts isn’t going anywhere. He is the darling of Lurie, who insisted on both the drafting of Hurts in 2020 (which devastated franchise QB Carson Wentz) and the unnecessary, $255 million contract extension in the spring of 2023, after which Lurie said Hurts already was one of “the great ones.”
The “great ones” don’t miss receivers, misdiagnose defenses, and make decisions too late to matter. Not this often.
He’s only 27. Maybe Hurts can be great yet. Giants bust Daniel Jones is thriving in his seventh season now that he’s in Indianapolis. Jets bust Sam Darnold resurrected his career in Minnesota in 2024, his seventh season, and he’s even better this season in Seattle. Browns bust Baker Mayfield found new life in his sixth season with his fourth team, Tampa Bay, where he’s gone to the past two Pro Bowls.
That’s not much solace here on the homestretch of a muddled, 8-4 season in which the offense still hasn’t played four quarters of proficient football against a good defense.
The Eagles, as defending champs, have endured a hellish schedule, one that includes losses to unexpectedly good teams like Denver and Chicago. Hurts has yet to deliver the sort of wire-to-wire performance you would expect from a quarterback averaging $51 million per season (even though that ranks just 11th in the NFL).
What 2025 has proved is that Hurts, today, is a pretty good quarterback who can win you games if things fall just right. If that’s not good enough for you, well, too bad.
You can get angry, and you can beat your head against that wall, but nothing’s going to change except the level of your headache.
The Cult of Analytics
You never start an argument with an analytics zealot because you will always lose. They have data and numbers and history. They generally ignore intangibles such as momentum, atmosphere, competition, site, and psyche.
This matters this week because of the meaningless yet fiery debate, fueled by superb (if somewhat self-anointing) NFL analyst Greg Olsen, surrounding the Eagles’ decision to try a two-point conversion with more than three minutes to play, trailing by nine, to make it a seven-point game. It failed. That meant the Eagles needed two more possessions to win, which was unlikely considering the limited time remaining. It made more common sense to kick the PAT and make it an eight-point game.
Nick Sirianni said, “I’m always going to go for a two in that scenario,” citing his personal research on the matter over several years. Sirianni is winning at a legendary clip, so maybe his studies show something publicly available that analytics do not. Those analytics give a slight edge to doing what Sirianni did.
But what Sirianni did virtually assured the loss. By doing so, it removed any real incentive from the defense, which had already been on the field 14 minutes more than the offense. The most realistically hopeful scenario after the missed two-point try was for the defense to hold, for the Eagles to score a TD, then for the Eagles to recover an onside kick, which happens at only about a 5% rate in the last two seasons.
Olsen and his tribe used X/Twitter to preach their message, which, predictably, incensed the anti-analytics barbarians.
It was kind of fun to watch the two sides battle, but kind of sad, too.
Because anyone who watched that game knew the Eagles weren’t going to score another touchdown, anyway.
Extra points
Nobody’s any good, right? The Eagles lost at home to the Bears, who are the NFC’s top seed. The Colts lost at home to the Texans, the mighty Rams lost in Carolina, the Chiefs lost at Dallas, and Jacksonville’s 8-4, the third seed in the AFC, behind the No. 2 Patriots and the No. 1 Broncos. And both the Chiefs and Lions would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, just like nobody predicted.
