Author: David Murphy

Kyle Schwarber was going to finish his career in a Phillies uniform. They’d been saying it without saying it since October. On Tuesday, they said it explicitly.

Five years, $150 million.

It is a remarkable sum of money on many levels. But, then, Schwarber is a remarkable hitter on many levels. Only three players in major league history have hit more home runs in the first three years of their 30s. Aaron Judge is the only player who has done it since the height of the steroid era. Sammy Sosa and Jim Thome are the other two. Schwarber’s 141 home runs between 30 and 32 years old are nine more than Babe Ruth hit at the same age.

You can bet that Thome was on John Middleton’s mind when the Phillies owner signed off on his latest megabucks deal. Heading into his age-33 season, Schwarber is older than most free agents who sign contracts like his. But he is only one year older than Thome was when the latter signed his six-year, $85 million contract with the Phillies in December 2002.

That deal aged well. Thome remained one of the game’s elite power bats well into his late 30s. He averaged 28 home runs and 484 plate appearances per season between the ages of 34 and 38. That was a significant drop-off from the 45 and 651 he averaged between 29 and 33. But no matter. The Phillies will be thrilled to be paying Schwarber $30 million in 2030 dollars if they can pencil in 30 home runs from him at the age of 38.

Mostly, though, that fifth year is the cost of doing business. Schwarber’s elite-elite power would have meant a dramatic upgrade to virtually any lineup in the majors. There was a market for his services. And the Phillies would have been devastated to lose him.

Middleton surely will tell you that a deal like this is bigger than dollars and cents and on-field statistics.

The Phillies feel like they need Schwarber in the middle of their lineup, yes. That much is obvious. He has scored or driven in 21.7% of the 3,105 runs they’ve produced in the last four regular seasons. But the Phillies also feel they need Schwarber in the clubhouse and on the team charter and on the Wall of Fame when all is said and done. Certain players belong with certain franchises. The Phillies were willing to pay to cement that association.

They also were willing to bear the risk that Schwarber ages like so many sluggers who came before him. There really isn’t a recent comparable for giving a 33-year-old designated hitter a five-year, $150 million deal. Schwarber’s representation probably pointed to the six-year, $162 million contract Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers in 2022. Freeman was one year younger than Schwarber, and he plays the field.

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So, yes, there is plenty of risk. Over the last 15 years, only three players have had more than two seasons of 30-plus home runs between the ages of 33 and 37. Eight had two or more. That’s not exactly a bankable track record. In 2030, the Phillies will be paying a combined $115-plus million to 37-year-old Schwarber, 37-year-old Bryce Harper, 37-year-old Trea Turner, and 37-year-old Aaron Nola.

There also is some risk on the front end. The Phillies have never shown a blatant disregard for luxury tax spending the way the Dodgers and Mets have. All indications are that they live in a world that has limits. Every dollar they pay to someone is a dollar less they can pay to someone else. In such a world, $30 million is a lot to commit each year to a player who is locked into the designated hitter position. If the Phillies intend to match their spending pattern of previous offseasons, they already are running out of disposable funds. Schwarber’s deal puts them at a projected $288 million in payroll commitments for 19 players.

If ever there was a time to go for broke, that time is now. While Schwarber may have been the biggest question of the offseason, nearly as big is the questions of where he hits and who hits behind him. The Phillies have been missing a third power bat in the middle of the order ever since Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL in 2023 and then left via free agency.

In Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, there are a couple of marquee free-agent bats available who would push the Phillies lineup much closer to reaching its potential. Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernández is rumored to be available via trade, although at $22 million a year, he wouldn’t offer much of a discount on an annual basis over the top of the free-agent market.

In short, Schwarber was a given. Only something drastic and unforeseen would have prevented him from wearing red pinstripes in 2026 and beyond. Any judgment of the Phillies’ offseason will depend on what happens next.

What would it mean to keep Kyle Schwarber in a Phillies uniform?

Just look at the names he is likely to pass on the franchise’s all-time home runs list by the end of 2026, his age-33 season.

Sitting at 187 dingers since joining the Phillies, Schwarber likely will pass Bobby Abreu (195) and Dick Allen (204) before the All-Star break. A month or two later, he could pass Jimmy Rollins (216) and Cy Williams (217).

By then, Schwarber will be in striking distance of three of the heaviest hitters in Phillies history, literally and figuratively.

• Greg Luzinski, 223
• Chase Utley, 233
• Chuck Klein, 243

A repeat of Schwarber’s 56 homers in 2025 would leave him in a tie with Klein for fifth place all-time. Only Del Ennis (259) and Pat Burrell (251) would stand between him and Mike Schmidt (548) and Ryan Howard (382).

You can’t let a guy like that walk away. We know it. The Phillies know it. And, yeah, Schwarber’s agent knows it. Which is why we are here, in early December, on the eve of baseball’s annual winter meetings, still waiting for confirmation that the last of the Schwarbombs has yet to fall on South Philadelphia.

Do not fret, sweet children. Save your angst for the Eagles. The baseball offseason is in its opening laps. The pace car is still on the track. The top of the market has barely begun to percolate. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger … all have yet to agree to terms. All will remain free agents for the foreseeable future. Exactly one position player has signed a multiyear contract. Schwarber and the Phillies are right where we should have expected them to be.

The one big deal to date actually bodes well for the Phillies. Josh Naylor’s five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Mariners suggests that the market won’t grow too outlandish for sluggers at nonpremium positions.

You can argue that Naylor barely qualifies as a slugger, with 88 home runs over the last four seasons. Whatever the semantics, he clearly is in a different power class. But there is some comparability here. Naylor’s 124 OPS+ from 2022 to 2025 is in a similar tier to Schwarber’s 134. He is also four years younger than Schwarber and has a good glove at first base.

The logic goes something like this: The same types of teams that would have interest in a hitter like Schwarber probably would have interest in a hitter like Naylor. If Naylor had signed for six years and $120 million or five years and $110 million, we might be sitting here wondering if it really would be wise for the Phillies to shell out the stupid money it would take to retain Schwarber. The answer probably still would be yes. But it’s nice not to have to consider it.

It’s fair to assume that the market will look as it has the past several seasons. There is a pretty hard limit on the amount teams are willing to spend on players who don’t add significant value on defense. Besides Juan Soto, the only hitters to sign for more than $95 million over the last three offseasons have played shortstop, center field, or starting pitcher (Shohei Ohtani). The last first baseman or designated hitter to sign for more than five years and $100 million was Freddie Freeman, who landed six years and $162 million from the Dodgers in 2022.

Schwarber can — and should — argue that he is a different case. A typical designated hitter doesn’t finish second in MVP voting. Schwarber’s power and consistency are transcendent enough to disregard positional archetypes. The only hitter with more home runs than his 187 over the last four seasons is Aaron Judge (210). He, Judge, and Ohtani (also at 187) stand alone. In terms of impact on a contender, Schwarber is much closer to Freeman than he is to Naylor. Six years and $150 million is a defensible ask.

The Phillies can argue that Schwarber’s age and positional limitations are legitimate factors. Just look at Pete Alonso, who is pretty close to a carbon copy of Schwarber at the plate. The Mets’ first baseman had to settle for a two-year, $54 million contract last offseason. Not only that, Alonso is on the market again after opting out of his deal. Or, consider Teoscar Hernández, who signed with the Dodgers for three years and $69 million last year. Schwarber is better than Hernández. But is he better than two Hernándezes? For the Phillies, four years and $100 million is a justifiable offer.

Hopefully, we’re just waiting for the two sides to split the difference. Five years and $125 million would be a steep price to pay to lock up the designated hitter position through Schwarber’s age-37 season. But then, Schwarber will be bigger than a 37-year-old designated hitter when that time comes. He will be one of the defining players of an era, one of the franchise’s all-time greats, a fixture in the community and a potential Hall of Famer. He may have passed Howard for second on the franchise home run list. He may be closing in on 500 for his career.

Can the Phillies afford to sign Schwarber?

The better question is whether they can afford not to.