CARACAS, Venezuela — American oil traders are poised to descend on Venezuela’s capital — and may soon be able to fly here direct. The Trump administration is preparing to reopen the U.S. Embassy. The socialist government here has made the nationalized oil industry friendlier for foreign investors, and the U.S. Treasury has eased sanctions to allow U.S. companies to buy and sell Venezuelan oil.
The dizzying changes would have seemed unthinkable just a month ago, when U.S. forces were surrounding the country, seizing Venezuelan oil, and menacing the authoritarian government.
But the U.S. capture Jan. 3 of President Nicolás Maduro, and President Donald Trump’s vow to exploit the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has fundamentally transformed relations between the two countries. The administration is working with Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, rather than María Corina Machado, the popular opposition leader whom Trump previously championed.
The economic outlook for Venezuela has improved dramatically; after years of economic collapse, rising unemployment, and soaring inflation, some economists say it’s not far-fetched to imagine double-digit growth this year.
In the latest surprise move, Rodríguez on Friday proposed a general amnesty for hundreds of political prisoners, some of whom have been held for decades — and promised to repurpose the infamous Helicoide prison, an alleged torture center.
Human rights defenders have expressed cautious optimism. But in Caracas, hope is colliding with reality. For many Venezuelans, the changes have done little to ease the daily pressure of paying for basic goods or fears of being detained by police.
Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, has yet to release details of elections or power-sharing agreements. The individuals who ran the country’s feared security forces under Maduro remain in power. It’s still unsafe for opposition leader Machado, the recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, to return home.
With the government’s apparatus for repression fully intact, Venezuelans say, real change feels far away.
“I don’t know if the politics are changing, but my pocket is the same,” said Argenis Pérez, who parks cars at a restaurant in eastern Caracas. Waking at 4 a.m. each morning to take two buses from his home in working-class Avenida Victoria to his job, he earns $120 a month, paid in bolivars and in bags of food.
“I don’t buy an entire grocery list,” he said. “I just buy the basics.”
He was interrupted by cars approaching the restaurant — luxury SUVs that sell for well over $100,000. What did he think about the changes?
“Well, you know … we can’t speak about that,” he said. “I don’t know what will happen, but I need to work.”
After weeks in which the United States was boarding tankers and seizing Venezuelan oil, the economy is experiencing some relief. The United States has released $300 million from oil sales to pay government workers. The injection has helped stabilize Venezuela’s foreign exchange rate and could help reduce retail prices, economist Francisco Rodríguez said.
It’s unclear how the U.S. will manage the proceeds from oil sales and how the money will flow into the Venezuelan economy. The government has not released economic statistics for years.
The government-controlled National Assembly voted unanimously Thursday to make Petróleos de Venezuela and other state-run enterprises more attractive to foreign investors. The U.S. Treasury then announced a general license for U.S. companies to buy, sell, transport, and refine Venezuelan oil.
Alejandro Grisanti, an economist with the Caracas consulting firm Ecoanalítica, said dialogue between the government and the private sector also has improved. “I think 2026 will be a good year,” he said. Ecoanalítica predicts oil production will grow by at least 200,000 barrels per day, more bolivars will circulate, and banks can offer more credit.
The country is still recovering from cumulative inflation, which in the first three weeks of January was 15%. “But for that to actually improve the purchasing power of the average Venezuelan,” Grisanti said, “that will take six to eight months.”
“There is still a lot of uncertainty,” he said. The recent inflation, along with messaging from the government that Maduro’s allies remain in control, means Venezuelans “may not feel the profound change that is taking place.”
Under Rodríguez, the regime already has released hundreds of political prisoners, but security forces continue to detain Venezuelans arbitrarily, human rights advocates say. About 50 detainees have disappeared within the prison system, and officials have refused to say where they are or what’s happened to them.
Some prisoners have been released without notice. One Venezuelan political prisoner, who had been in the Rodeo 1 prison for more than a year, was suddenly given a haircut, masked, and put on a bus with other detainees, according to his sister, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details about her brother’s case. The detainees were taken to an unfamiliar location in Caracas and directed to leave the bus. Their families weren’t alerted.
The man walked for two hours to the home of a relative, and asked to use a phone to call other family members who had been waiting outside the prison in hopes he would be released.
In the weeks since his release, his family says, he has said nothing of what he experienced in the prison. He remains in Venezuela, where he is prohibited from speaking publicly about his detention.
Many of the recently released prisoners have been surveilled, threatened, and warned not to speak out, according to Orlando Moreno, a human rights coordinator for Vente Venezuela, Machado’s political party.
“This is not true freedom. It is freedom with chains,” Moreno said. “They will let you out of your cell, but you are not free.”
But some Venezuelans appear willing to take on more risk, according to Andreina Baduel, director of the Committee of Family and Friends for the Freedom of Political Prisoners. Many have come forward for the first time to report cases of relatives imprisoned long ago. A protest outside the attorney general’s office recently drew twice the usual number of demonstrators, she said.
“We now know that we are not alone in this struggle,” Baduel said.
Some opposition politicians are emerging from hiding and speaking publicly for the first time in months or even years. And within the government-controlled National Assembly, some of the few opposition lawmakers allowed to hold seats have sensed more open dialogue.
“The government has acknowledged its vulnerability,” opposition lawmaker Antonio Ecarri said. “There has been more respect and cordiality.”
One important change is the inclusion of some government critics on a new peace commission.
“Venezuela needs to find itself. We’ve become accustomed to living separately and in tribes. It’s been many years of conflict,” commission member Michael Penfold, a professor at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Administration in Caracas, wrote on X. “Let’s hope that in this process, Venezuelans don’t become the main obstacle.”
Opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles, who ran against Maduro twice, called on the regime to release plans for an election. “So far, all we have are announcements of investment in the oil sector,” he said. The government must increase salaries and pensions, he said, to give Venezuelans a sense that their lives are, in fact, improving.
“We Venezuelans have been very patient, and we know it’s not quick,” he said. “Urgent things need to be done, but democracy cannot be detached from building Venezuela’s future.”
