Rob Thomson served dinner at a soup kitchen in Kensington and read books to students in Germantown. He spoke at banquets in Cherry Hill and Bethlehem. For four days this week, he met fans and talked baseball across the region.
And in case he wasn’t previously aware of the discourse about the Phillies’ offseason, let’s just say the phrase “running it back” came up a few times along the trail.
Thomson’s take:
“We’re going to have three new relievers,” the manager said at one stop of the Phillies’ annual winter tour. “We’ve got a new right fielder. [Justin] Crawford’s going to get every chance to play. We’ve probably got a rookie starting pitcher in [Andrew] Painter. We’ve got Otto Kemp, who wasn’t here at the start of last year. We’re turning over 20 to 25% of our roster.
“So, if you think that’s turning it back, or running it back, whatever the saying is, I can’t help you.”
OK, Thomson isn’t wrong. But two things can be true. The Phillies can change two-thirds of the outfield and half the bullpen and still bring back the guts of a roster that accounted for nearly three-quarters of the team’s plate appearances and almost 70% of its innings pitched last season.
Does that constitute running it back? Maybe. Maybe not.
Regardless, it misses the point. Because whether or not you think president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made an appropriate number of changes after a second consecutive NL East title and another loss in the divisional round of the playoffs, the pertinent question is this: Are the Phillies better or worse today than when last season ended Oct. 9 at Dodger Stadium?
And on that topic, Thomson was less definitive.
“I think it’s to be determined,” he told Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball podcast. “But I feel better about it.”
It’s a manager’s job to be optimistic — and as importantly, to project optimism to the public, especially in a week when single-game tickets went on sale. Thomson listed reasons to be bullish. He likes the addition of free-agent reliever Brad Keller and suspects new right fielder Adolis García tried too hard to put the injury-wracked Rangers on his broad back last season and is primed to rebound. He also believes Crawford and Painter will bring youthful vigor as rookies with substantial roles.
But Thomson also acknowledged the twin bummers of losing Ranger Suárez in free agency and Bo Bichette to the Mets after the Phillies thought they had a seven-year, $200 million agreement with him. It wasn’t only the fans who felt dispirited over the Bichette soap opera. Dombrowski said it felt like a “gut punch.” Several members of the front office are still seething.
It surely didn’t help that the Mets followed their backdoor deal with Bichette by trading for center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and top-of-the-rotation starter Freddy Peralta, the biggest splashes in a roster overhaul that needed to happen after a three-month collapse caused them to miss the playoffs last year. Add it all together, and Fangraphs upped its projection of the Mets’ total WAR to 46.7, third-highest in baseball and better than the Phillies’ 43.9 forecast.
Whatever, Thomson said. Step back from the last seven days, and he contends the Phillies’ internal outlook remains as bright as the Florida sun that awaits them in a few weeks.
“There are a lot of really good things going on,” Thomson said. “Because of the Bichette thing, a lot of that stuff gets overlooked a little bit, and I understand that. But we’ve got a really good club. We’ve just got to play better in the playoffs.”
So much will happen before that. In the interim, let’s attempt to answer whether the Phillies are any better with a cast of characters that is one year older but almost as familiar as ever. A few factors to consider:
Letting go of Bo
There isn’t much use for the Phillies to cry over the spilled milk of having Bichette slip through their fingers.
But there’s still milk all over the floor.
Signing Bichette would’ve set several dominoes in motion, including a likely trade of third baseman Alec Bohm. J.T. Realmuto almost certainly wouldn’t have been re-signed, with the Phillies getting so far down the Bichette road that Dombrowski phoned Realmuto’s agent, Matt Ricatto, to tell him they were headed in that direction.
“I wouldn’t want him to read about it in the paper,” Dombrowski said.
Within an hour of Bichette-to-the-Mets, Dombrowski called back Ricatto. The Phillies boosted their three-year offer to Realmuto to $45 million, with $5 million per year in incentives, and the iron-man catcher was right back where he has been since 2019.
But there was an underlying awkwardness when the Phillies announced their deal with Realmuto in a video news conference. Such occasions are typically celebratory in nature. Instead, Realmuto sounded like a human consolation prize.
“There’s no secret the Phillies had other opportunities,” he said. “Luckily, after they missed out on an opportunity there at the end, they called back, improved their offer, and got to a place we were happy with.”
Swell. As long as both sides are really happy.
The Phillies have developed a band-of-brothers culture over the last several years, especially since Thomson took over as manager in June 2022. Kyle Schwarber is the leader in the clubhouse; Realmuto on the field. There’s a bond here that players have been eager to join.
But given how much management clearly wanted Bichette, how can anyone be sure that Realmuto, Bohm, and others who may have been collateral damage are in the right frame of mind as spring training begins?
“It’s a good question,” Thomson said. “I think for the most part, our guys, because we’ve got a pretty experienced club, they understand the business side of it. They understand that things happen and things don’t happen, and they have to keep moving forward and stay focused on what they can control. They’ve been through it quite a bit, free agency, trade rumors. That’s all part of the business.
“I think they understand that. And now that we’re past that, I think they’re ready to go.”
Generation next
Other than playing for the Phillies, what do Bryce Harper, Realmuto, Schwarber, Zack Wheeler, and Trea Turner have in common?
They all came up with another team.
In making the playoffs four seasons in a row for only the second time in their 143-year history, the Phillies built this core through free agency. Most of those signings worked out well, save Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker. Still, the number of long-term, big-money contracts on the books has limited their flexibility.
If it feels like the Phillies keep running back the same roster, that’s why.
The only way, then, to really alter the mix is to assimilate young, inexpensive players from the minors. And since 2023, the Phillies have had only 12 players make their major-league debuts — fewer than any team, based on Fangraphs research.
Crawford and Painter could change that. The Phillies expect Crawford to win the center-field job out of camp at age 22, which would make him their youngest player in an opening-day lineup since Freddy Galvis in 2012. Painter, 23 in April, could claim a spot in the season-opening rotation.
“If you want to have a really healthy organization,” Thomson said, “I think you have to be able to infuse some youth along the way.”
Thomson witnessed it firsthand a decade ago.
In 2016, he was the bench coach for the Yankees, who had the second-highest payroll in baseball and seven players in their 30s who made 240 or more plate appearances. They contended for the playoffs, but fell short with 84 wins. The roster had become stale.
A year later, the Yankees got younger without rebuilding. Gary Sánchez replaced Brian McCann behind the plate; Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery emerged as the team’s best starters at age 23 and 24, respectively; a rookie named Aaron Judge took over in right field.
The Yankees changed the mix on the fly, won 91 games, and went to Game 7 of the AL Championship Series against the trash-can-banging Astros.
“There were some warts there, no doubt, some growing pains,” Thomson recalled. “But when we turned it over into ‘17, they just took off and ran with it, and it was really good. I think there’s some similarities there.”
The biggest difference, according to Thomson: Whereas the 2017 Yankees were carried by the kids, the Phillies won’t have to ask theirs to do as much because the stars are still closer to their primes.
“Our core guys are really good, so if Crawford can come in and just kind of do his thing, don’t put too much pressure on him, he’s going to be fine,” Thomson said. “Same thing with Painter. If Painter’s in our [No.] 5 spot to start the season and he just relaxes and just grows with it, he’s going to be fine.
“I’m really excited about it. I love young guys. I just love the enthusiasm, the energy that they bring to the team that filters throughout the clubhouse and into those veteran players. And sometimes they need that.”
The Phillies need it like they need oxygen. You might even say it’s their best chance to be better than last year.
